Capital governance block: China's auto market is expected to slow down 4%

In the afternoon of December 24th, the night’s nighttime night, the most unusual automobile trade park in the northwest of the capital—Odebao Automobile City—was dispersed. The calm and empty exhibition halls could not see the “Hundred Regiments Offenses” of last night.

This day coincided with the Western Christmas Eve, Shanghai GM's 4S shop sales manager has just been off work. Because they had already missed the last train before the Yaohao, the staff was still busy with the 30 orders received last night. There were a few customers who looked at the car in the showroom. The Guangben 4S shop near the GM showroom sold on the 23rd day. For 40 vehicles, FAW-Volkswagen signed 300 orders.

The sale of the evening on the 23rd was not a case. Anonymous dealers told reporters on the 24th, “Last night was just spectacular. I went to the Audi store at 5 am and they were still sorting out customer information. In two days we were planning a holiday. People are on duty.” One night on the 23rd, the Group’s 4S shop in the masses set 300-400 units a night, which is ten times that of usual.

It is also busy with dealers and automobile dealership associations. As an industry organization representing the interests of distributors, the association has been meeting and researching since the news on the afternoon of the 23rd. In the near future, the heads of major car dealership groups will be called upon urgently. Will discuss solutions.

Self-owned brand forced to retreat?

"The next step in the association's work is to call on the original car sales network to make the transition to the automotive service network. The association has strengthened the training of dealers in after-sales services, such as training in customer relationship management systems." Song Song, Director of the China Circulation Association Tao told reporters on the 24th, "services should include used cars, car rental, beauty decoration, modification, automotive aftermarket, dealers business model should be further expanded to increase the dealer's profit model."

A high-level group of dealers told the reporter that there are three things that must be considered at the moment. The first is to make an assessment of the profit balance of the 4S stores under the group and calculate how many vehicles sold each month can maintain profitability. Followed by a detailed plan for after-sales service next year, and strive to increase after-sales service. The third is to prepare for the acquisition.

“Currently, self-owned brands and some joint venture brands that are not strong will be very difficult. On the contrary, the days of acquiring some strong brand outlets and forming certain monopolies may be better. As far as I know, Beijing has some new ones. The Honda flagship store is not ready for business, and it has been directly transferred."

On December 27th, Pang Qinghua, president of the giant group, told the reporter on the phone that compared with the joint venture brands, the self-owned brands were hit harder in the hard-to-find Beijing market. “I’m most worried about measures to limit purchases in Beijing. Being imitated by other capital cities, the blow to self-owned brands will be fatal."

According to Pang, at present, there are some dealers in Beijing that sell models under 100,000 yuan and they are ready to transfer. "In the case that maintenance profit cannot be supported, sales profit will be greatly reduced, and the transfer of self-owned brands to surrounding areas may become a trend."

At Oudebo Motors, a Chery dealer with dark circles was very excited about the 23rd event. “So far this month, we sold 1300 cars and sold 50 cars yesterday and night.” One of the car buyers inside complained to the reporter: “To buy a situation is now at least 15,000 more expensive than before. It has also increased the insurance premium by increasing the price, and has not given any computers.”

But this is probably his last madness. In his view, the decline in sales volume in the next year will be higher than the shrinking sales in the auto market in Beijing. “We also have a group of loyal users, 4S stores are also working hard to open up new profit points, can not only rely on selling cars to make money. The price war will be difficult to work, more is to improve service levels. Hope that manufacturers will also reduce sales accordingly Tasks, such as the introduction of cross-regional sales initiatives."

A consensus of most dealers is that due to the increase in the cost of buying a car, the low-end models based on self-owned brands will obviously face an impact, followed by consumption in Beijing’s auto market will be high-grade, and the city's grade will be improved.

Zhou Xiaobo, Chairman of the Chartered Auto Group, which focuses on sales of high-end German brands, told reporters on the 27th: “For luxury brands, it should be the overall optimism of pessimism. It is certain that all future stores The operating costs will increase and the gross profit will decline. Not only that, but the speed of mergers and acquisitions will be greatly accelerated."

In the face of the obvious changes in the Beijing auto market, Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Passenger Cars, concluded that most of its own brands will be withdrawn from the Beijing market. “The sharp decline in Beijing’s sales will inevitably lead to shrinking middle-to-low-end consumer spending. Some of them will be closed down, and it is a reasonable choice for independent brands to withdraw from Beijing."

"With the restrictions imposed by the big cities, the network will be deployed at the junction of urban and rural areas in advance so that it can accept the demand for car purchases from local and neighboring counties and cities, and ease the pressure of future operations." Cui Dongshu reminded.

Used car dealers find the way:

Off-site sales or car rental business

In addition to the 240,000 license plate targets next year, the Beijing New Deal seems to bring great business opportunities to used cars and car rentals as the demand for swaps increases.

Most people in the industry interviewed by reporters believe that the current number of vehicles owned by Beijing is nearly 4.7 million units. If the exchange rate can reach a certain proportion, such as 250,000 units, plus the increase of 240,000 new vehicles, then the sales in the Beijing market will also be reduced. It is possible to reach 500,000 units, but it is still difficult to judge how large the demand for such exchanges is at the moment, and the redemption will be a key factor.

According to the practice before the New Deal was introduced, because there is no cost for used car licenses, owners who have a license for more than three years can choose to keep, otherwise the used car will automatically be cancelled after the license plate is sold. After the introduction of the New Deal, it was stipulated that the replacement vehicle owner could retain the license within 6 months, and after 6 months no car was purchased and the license would be cancelled.

Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, believes that the purchase increase should increase the trading volume of used cars, but because buying a second-hand car also needs to participate in a Yaohao, whoever buys a used car is a problem. Obviously, the used car in Beijing will accelerate to the periphery. Regional mobility.

“The capital’s second-hand car dealers should make such preparations. The Beijing club car is not easy to sell. Cross-regional dealer groups may benefit. They can sell directly to other places, but the cost will be higher than sales in Beijing. It is also a challenge, said Luo Lei.

Yao Hongjun, senior vice president of China Car Rental Co., told the reporter on the 27th that the policy itself is a good news for the car rental business, but it is still rather confused for the development of the car rental company itself. “Because leasing companies are also buying cars, we have to share 2% of the shares with taxis and buses, and 4800 licenses a year. At present, China’s leasing company has more than 2,000 units in Beijing. In the long run, It is difficult to meet the development needs. We hope relevant departments can support the development of car rental business."

“The New Deal will have a major impact on the used car market in Beijing.” Yao Hongjun emphasized that “Since China Car Rental does not have the demand for buying used cars, the demand for selling used cars is relatively strong, and the residual value of used cars in Beijing will also decline.”

As the most prosperous second-hand car market in the country, Beijing has always been the largest producer of used cars. It is also a place of digestion, and the price is stable. There are also many foreigners collecting cars here. In Yao’s opinion, in the future, Beijing, like Shanghai, will become the output of used cars. Beijing cannot digest it, but sells it to other places, and thus the price of used cars will decline in the future.

Zhang Zhiyu, a professor at Tsinghua University who has long been engaged in the training of second-hand appraisal and appraisers, told reporters in a very positive manner that in the future, the volume of second-hand cars in Beijing will be greatly reduced. At present, he and his more than 100 students are very concerned about the details of used cars. Beijing now has a dozen used car markets. “Who will buy second-hand cars in the future in Beijing? How do the channels of used cars flow out to foreign countries? We hope that we can introduce clearer rules for used cars.”

The auto market turns into a slow growth period?

How will the Beijing New Deal affect the overall auto market next year? Some industry insiders expect that next year due to policy impact, sales in Beijing are expected to decline by 500,000 units compared to expectations, and the national passenger vehicle (generalized passenger car) market will therefore slow down by 4%.

"The passenger car market will return to normal operation next year, with growth rate slightly lower than 15%." On the 26th, Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Development Department of the National Information Center, told reporters at the China Import Automotive Forum that the Chinese automobile industry has entered the second round The growth period lasts 15 years.

According to the global automotive market development experience, each automobile market will experience two rapid development stages. The first phase of sales growth is the fastest, with an average annual increase of about 30% for 5 years. According to Xu Changming's theory, China's first high-speed period is from 2001 to 2008, with an average annual increase of 30.4% in eight years.

“At present, China has entered the second round of rapid growth. Due to the great relationship between the popularity of automobiles and the equalization of income, China will spend longer than other countries in completing the second popularization period. This phase of Japan and South Korea respectively 8 and 11 years."

Xu Changming judged that there are three main factors that affect the direction of the Chinese auto market in 2011. The first is the long-term potential growth rate, the second is the speed of economic development in the next year, and the third is the automobile-related policy next year. The so-called normal operation means that the demand for passenger cars is centered on the long-term potential growth rate, and fluctuates slightly from top to bottom.

“The industry has a basic judgment on the long-term potential growth rate. Our country has entered the second high-speed growth phase of the passenger vehicle market since last year, with a potential long-term growth rate of about 15% at this stage. Economic growth will continue to provide a better vehicle market. The most important factor is the next year’s policy. In general, the negative effect of the policy in 2011 is relatively greater than positive.”

For Beijing’s just-released Beijing congestion control plan, Xu Changming predicted that “it is likely to bring other places to follow. Beijing is the capital, and the introduction of policies indicates that it is recognized above. In this case, there are a large number of traffic jams like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Chongqing. Cities may have demonstration effects."

In 2011, Beijing issued 20,000 licenses a month. In addition to changing the old car population, the impact of the Beijing auto market is probably 20,000 to 300,000, but the impact on the overall situation is not significant. The impact is mainly due to the "demonstration effect." This chain reaction The impact of the entire auto market is greater. Xu Changming inferred that in the first and first half of next year, large and medium-sized cities may appear to follow the panic buying phenomenon in Beijing at the end of the year.

After the Beijing blockade plan came out, some people worried that the position of China's automobile production and sales was not guaranteed. Contrary to this pessimistic view, Zhang Xiaoyu, vice chairman of the Federation of Machinery Industry, believes that “we have become the world’s largest automobile producer, and unless there are wars and other major natural disasters, this status will not change.”

Cui Dongshu believes that the Chinese passenger car market has entered a period of low growth. “Since the mega cities and capital cities in the future will gradually start purchasing restrictions, there will be continuous reduction factors in the next few years. This reduction factor can be understood as the gradual reduction of sales volume in the mega cities from the current 20% to 10%. As a result, the cumulative growth rate in the coming years will be about 10% lower than the potential growth rate."