Will the oil be split? Many resistances to the program

Yu Yong’s recent life has been completely disrupted. He has not returned home to see his son for half a month. He says he is “upset” and does not want to go home and affect his family’s feelings. He can only stay in his dorm.

Yu Yong is the head of China National Petroleum Corporation (hereinafter referred to as "oil") the headquarters of a department, some time ago, the oil of several senior leaders surveyed, followed by outgoing Reform Commission has held a meeting in the oil or to be split, or To be reorganized.

Regardless of the outcome, these are not very good news for Yu Yong. “More than me, many colleagues are like this.” Yu Yong said that everyone now feels confused about the future because they do not want the company to be “split” and “reorganization or reorganization is acceptable”.

According to the reporter’s understanding, at present within the PetroChina, leaders at the director level are somewhat confused. In response to this, the Central People's Government has sent people down to various places to appease the employees. “The central state-owned enterprises have a direct bearing on the country’s economic lifeline and a problem in the industry. Will affect many industries!" Informed sources told reporters.

Another news is that there is an operation within PetroChina that is quietly proceeding. It is that they have sent professional people to investigate CNPC's affiliated companies nationwide, such as which regions, which companies, and which businesses are the best. , The most profitable, then the division of these areas and businesses, sort out a report, reported to the National Development and Reform Commission, "look at the next step how to do."

PetroChina is split?

An expert who did not want to be identified admitted that Jiang Jiemin’s case came out for about a week and it was reported that CNPC was going to rectify the situation. “The loudest voice is the split.” The plan given by the industry is to large-scale. The region is the core, then integrated, with the regional subsidiaries as the core, coupled with the surrounding small companies and industries, and the more intensive companies above the business, and then combined together, “the initial concept is divided into North China, South China, There are five to six regional companies in the Northeast, but each company will be different in business, such as oil refining and petrochemical, and it will be the main business of North China and Northeast China."

Many people in the CNPC headquarters are worried that if the company is really split, then they will be assigned where to work, salary will not be changed, etc. After all, this involves their own interests. The bottom-level employees at the headquarters, including sales and marketing, are optimistic about this. In their opinion, the change may be stronger than it is. "We did not confirm the news in one day. Everyone couldn't feel at ease in one day." Yu Yong said.

The attitude of employees of local companies in CNPC is completely different. For them, the work of local oil companies is relatively stable. They believe that if there is no major illegal activity, it is basically an iron rice bowl that is similar to the civil servants. “The impact of reorganization on us is not too great.” A company's Xiao Lu said.

In fact, the National Development and Reform Commission considers “splitting up” PetroChina. Less than a month before and after, this matter has not been made public. Only a small number of people know that because “the aspects involved are too broad”.

However, throughout August, relevant departments had held important work conferences for the reform of the domestic oil industry on many occasions. The participants were not limited to high-level oil companies, but also included Sinopec, CNOOC, and National Development and Reform Commission officials.

It seems that the "reform" for PetroChina has been put on the agenda.

Ren Ninghao, a researcher in the energy industry at China Investment Advisors, admits that the current split is not particularly large. "What we are talking about now is how to reorganize our business and put it on the market."

Renning Hao believes that the restructuring is actually similar to the so-called splitting in terms of operating methods, but the purpose is not the same. The splitting of the company or the splitting of business is aimed at the corruption cases of Jiang Jiemin and others. The business restructuring is aimed at listing.

"The split and reorganization are similar in appearance, that is, to enlarge the advantage of high-quality business and to strip out the bad business, but the reorganization will be better than the split. The split is an administrative intervention that directly divides a company into several For small companies, this resistance is relatively large, but if it is reorganized, the resistance will be relatively small."

Not only the reorganization, this time, the personnel aspect of PetroChina will have a relatively large adjustment. For example, Daqing Oilfield and Shengli Oilfield, which involve the most corruption cases, will surely break the current situation if they are to be split. "There will be personnel mobilization at the senior level, but the specific staff and staff will not change much."

Zhou Dadi, the former director of the Energy Development and Reform Commission’s Energy Institute, was not optimistic about CNPC’s move to recapitalize high-quality assets. He believes that “this path is totally unreasonable” and “high-quality assets are put out, allowing people to enjoy so-called profits and not make money. Things, state subsidies, what is this thing?"

He explained to reporters that at this stage, many state-owned enterprises are constrained by national policies and their business scope is very limited. Strictly speaking, it is not necessary to broaden the road for private enterprises, but to consider how public ownership should develop. It is the reform of public ownership that also provides enough room. What makes Zhou Dadi not understand is that now the stock market is not good, and corporate bonds can be sold. Why is it necessary to go public?

“It is now at the stage of internal consultation for oil companies.” The person familiar with the matter said that they are afraid that if they expand externally, it will cause confusion in the enterprise.

Although Zhou Dadi thought that the split of PetroChina was completely unnecessary, he also discussed the possibility that PetroChina might be divided into several local companies from one side. Some leaders think that the company is big and not manageable. “Some local leaders feel themselves. It is the director, or the director, but PetroChina is a vice-ministerial unit. Such a large company does not count itself, but also does not command. Many local leaders or some administrative departments are more worried about big companies. They hope that The company is smaller."

Zhou Dadi’s concern is that if large companies are split into small companies, these small companies will inevitably be constrained by local governments, and they will go to local governments to “stumble” to form local protectionism or regional monopolies.

Wang Zhen, executive vice president of the China Energy Strategy Institute of China University of Petroleum (Beijing), believes that the split of PetroChina is impossible and meaningless. He said that in the future, the market will be more and more open, so companies are not big or small, but the supervision of relevant departments is not in place, the market is not able to fully compete. Gradually increase market competition and gradually increase government supervision. All stages of the industrial chain allow companies to freely enter. “This is the direction of reform.”

Pipeline independence and split independence

If we say that the independence of the pipeline means that CNPC has been split, it will not agree with CNPC. He asked: “What are the benefits of splitting? How do you demolish?” Zhou Dadi said that the independence of the pipeline is not called split because the pipeline is used in many countries. Originally, it was a public utility. In the past, most of the pipelines were made by enterprises themselves. But now that the network has been formed, it becomes a public utility.

"Public utilities can only be subject to state regulations and then charged for network fees. This is a separate matter from the separation of PetroChina. This is a reasonable arrangement for special businesses." Zhou Dadi said that people had already mentioned from the perspective of technology management. The independence of the pipeline, but now is not the time, because now not only PetroChina has pipelines, Sinopec also has pipelines, CNOOC also has a small number of pipelines, and some localities also have local-owned pipelines, “how to integrate, how to manage, how to implement, but also a process."

Wang Zhen said that he has been thinking about a problem recently. It is now necessary to separate the pipeline from the others. It is necessary to speed up the construction of the pipeline, or that the construction of our pipeline has entered a relatively mature stage.

In fact, as early as 1998, the two major oil companies discussed the independence of oil and gas pipelines at the time of reorganization. However, due to the fact that the pipeline construction was still in its infancy and required a lot of funds to build, the discussion was also Nothing more, no further progress.

In July of that year, the country implemented a major reorganization of the petroleum and petrochemical industries, breaking down the former China National Petroleum Corporation and the Petrochemical Corporation, and establishing China National Petroleum Corporation and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation.

The biggest difference between the two major group companies after the reorganization and the past is that the two major companies were divided according to the upstream and downstream of the oil production and processing, and now they are divided geographically. The north is the Oil and Gas Group, and the south is the Petrochemical Group.

Wang Zhen said that if an independent pipeline company was established at that time, the pipeline construction in the entire country would certainly not be developing as fast as it is today. In his opinion, the road to pipeline construction in China is still very long, and more funds are needed for continuous investment. With the relatively low return and long cycle of pipeline construction, the enthusiasm for the entry of private capital may not be too high. PetroChina and Sinopec can use the upstream profits to speed up the construction of the pipeline in the middle reaches of China, “pros and cons.”

Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, believes that the independence of the pipeline is the direction of market reform, but it is unlikely in the short term because "this is a big move."

Lin Boqiang said that CNPC is currently monopolizing the monopoly. If the central government breaks down, it will no longer be a monopoly. Therefore, not only CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC, but also the entire oil industry, will have very large consumption and supply for the entire market. influences.

After all, at this stage, the pipeline is in the period of investment and construction. From the point of view of cash flow, it means that it is still in a large investment phase. The return cycle may take two or three decades, unless it is to increase the pipeline cost, but this is passed to the downstream, "the downstream pressure will increase in vain." Wang Zhen said.

If we count large accounts, the current status of the oil companies is that there are many profits in the upper stream, less profit in the middle reaches, and losses in the downstream. Overall, they are still profitable. In order to increase the competitiveness of the entire company, oil companies are still willing to invest in building pipelines.

However, Wang Zhen admits that establishing a third-party pipeline company to operate independently is a general trend. "But at present, it is not the best time."

For oil big brothers, the pipeline is not its main profit-making business. Therefore, even if it is independent, it will have no impact on the entire company. After all, it is necessary to invest a lot of money in the collection of fees. Construction.

In fact, at the end of 2007, PetroChina once had an integrated restructuring of the pipeline business. At that time, China National Petroleum Pipeline Bureau assigned 10 oil and gas import companies, including Changji, Daqing, Changchun, Shenyang, Jinzhou, Dalian, Qinhuangdao, Beijing, Zhongyuan and Changqing, to China Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (hereinafter referred to as “pipeline company”). )management.

The pipeline company is a regional branch company of PetroChina and is mainly responsible for the construction organization and operation management of oil and gas pipelines in most oil and gas fields in China. It is a specialized company that dominates domestic pipeline transportation.

Afterwards, in the overall strategy of CNPC, the construction of energy channels and domestic pipeline network will become the "high priority." Liao, who was then the leader of the restructuring and integration team of PetroChina's pipeline business, always pointed out that it is necessary to promote the development of the entire pipeline business through the reorganization and integration of the pipeline business.

However, in the long run, it is inevitable that the separation will take place. Third parties will operate independently and benefit the entire environment of fair competition. But at this stage, independence is not necessarily the best option. "If the West-East Gas Pipeline is not implemented by a large company like PetroChina, then the pipeline construction will not be completed so quickly," Wang Zhen said.

Yue Laiqun, a researcher and professor-level senior engineer at the Research Center for Oil and Gas Resources at the Ministry of Land and Resources, believes that the independence of the pipeline is indeed possible, but it is difficult to achieve in the near future. The monopoly is not only the three major oils. There are other companies. Sinopec and CNOOC all have pipelines. Do they need to come out and then re-establish a company? "There should be procedural arrangements for such things, and there is no possibility of even launching this year."

According to the Hong Kong Daily News on September 25, when CNPC’s chief representative in Hong Kong Wei Fang attended the 2013 Investors Forum held in Hong Kong, he denied the rumors that PetroChina’s pipeline assets would be nationalized. He also said that at present, domestic production of oil and gas fields is normal.

The monopoly industry will be split?

Some experts worry that if the independence of CNPC's pipeline is to break the monopoly, what about other central SOEs such as Sinopec, CNOOC, Mobile, Unicom and other industries?

In addition, if the pipeline is independent, then only qualified companies can compete fairly, then the price of natural gas will not be high? Yue Laiqun's view is that this is a new monopoly that replaces an old monopoly.

Yue Laiqun said that the monopoly of central SOEs is a superficial issue. In fact, it also involves political reforms. Yue Laiqun said that he was very confused about this, because now there are several listings of CNPC, one is the overall listing, there are oil fields, oil services are also on the market, if you take CNPC to the small, and then listed, or a headquarters in Beijing to control, Is it a modern enterprise management system? Is this reform still a direction?

Zhou Dadi analyzed that even if a special pipeline company is established, the price of natural gas will be controlled by the state like the national grid.

However, it is undeniable that monopoly is a big obstacle to private capital entering the upper reaches of the oil industry. There are several issues involved in breaking this monopoly. The first is when, the second is whether the time is ripe, and the third is the most important, that is, the government is willing to do so.

Pipelines are an important asset for oil companies because oil and gas transportation is monopolized by pipelines. However, the pipeline is a natural monopoly, because in a region or a certain point, only one broken line can be built. This pipeline is bound to be a monopoly in this region.

Zhou Dadi said that it is not impossible for the public capital to enter the oil industry, but if it is to adopt a joint-stock system, then how to manage it? “How can the minority shareholders enter the market and how to implement the so-called operating rights? It cannot be completely an investor.” He believes that if so many pipelines are to be operated in stages, they will be very complicated and “can't get it”.

He said that the overall profitability of PetroChina can still be achieved, but now the state has strict control over prices and there are many requirements. This means that for companies, the profit-making space is subject to many restrictions.

Ren Ninghao said that the current concept is to stimulate private capital, but it is clear that private capital can enter smoothly only when it is supported by local governments. "There must be a certain degree of tilt in policy."

For example, in environmental protection, such as credit policy. “The oil industry is a capital, resource, technology, and talent-intensive industry. Some things can be resolved by supporting private enterprises through their own policies. However, in terms of funding, the financing platforms for private capital are relatively small, and at this time banks are required to give private enterprises more support and support. Discounts make it easier for private companies to make loans."

According to the ideas of experts such as Ren Ninghao, the standards for private enterprises entering the oil industry need to be liberalized. For example, in the upstream exploration and mining sectors, the demand for public funds is too high. As for the transportation links for oil supply and the import qualifications for crude oil and natural gas, the import volume of private enterprises should gradually be liberalized.

In addition, a professional manager system must be established within the company. The supervisory mechanism must be open and transparent. “There are two requirements. The first is that all financial statements and financial data can be understood by ordinary economists and investors. This can, to a certain extent, curb the over-consolidation of finances. Report."

In the industry, PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC are also called “three barrels of oil.” The operating status of the three companies not only determines the state's overall industry condition, but also determines the energy security of the country to a large extent. Ren Ninghao believes that “three Barrel Oil “has the responsibility and obligation to make all their financial disclosures public. It also needs to publish all of their projects from the application, tendering and tendering to construction operations, and a series of processes as well as the operation of the funds on the official website.” Let all people who want to see see it."

Of course, the current problems faced by CNPC are mainly anti-corruption. Many experts expressed their concerns in the interview. That is, if anti-corruption becomes a sport, it may mean that the future may be not just CNPC, CNOOC, Sinopec, or even the national grid. Large monopoly state-owned enterprises are likely to face the same fate - split.

(At the request of the interviewee, the Yu Yong in the text is aliased)