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With the advancement of technology, LED applications are shifting from the traditional indication and backlight field to the field of lighting, and the market space for lighting is very broad.
Guotai Junan recently believes that the LED industry has benefited from the lighting market, and it is welcoming the best situation in history, and has entered a long period of three years of high prosperity. In addition, mainland enterprises will benefit from the comprehensive advantages of technology, cost and support, and will enjoy the global LED manufacturing chain transfer premium.
In 2014, the industry supply-demand ratio was only 1.04 (1.1 is the safe water level), which is close to the highest industry level in 2010. At the same time, the supply side shrinks significantly. According to CSA statistics, at the end of 2013, the total number of domestic MOCVD was 1,090 units, an increase of only about 110 units from 2012, far lower than the growth rate of the industry and the growth of downstream application demand. With the substantial export of subsidies, future expansion will be more rational. In addition, the demand side is quickly heavy. The LED lighting market has entered a high-speed growth range of penetration rate of 15. Take the leading enterprises as an example. In 2014, the number of new orders will increase by more than 2 times, and the average growth rate of the industry will double.
According to industry chain research, from the end of 2013 to the end of May 2014, the price of chips fell by less than 3, far better than the market expectation of 10, and it is expected that the future will come up with a structural price increase. In the medium and long term, as the mainstream size of the epitaxial wafers is switched to 4 inches, the chip size is reduced, and the light efficiency continues to increase, the chip profitability is expected to continue to be optimized. After the downstream application products experienced the process of actively lowering prices and seeking market, they have now fallen to the price of energy-saving lamps, and the space for subsequent price reduction is limited.
According to the survey, 3W LED lamps have fallen by 33 to 2.9 dollars in the past year, only 1.5 times that of the same energy-saving lamps, and domestic cost-effective products are close to the price of energy-saving lamps. In the medium and long term, with the increase in intelligence and dimming ratio, the added value of the application side is expected to increase.
The industrial chain research also showed that: 1) The capacity utilization rate of the chip continued to be fully produced. Due to the short-term failure to form enough new capacity, the supply of chips of most varieties began to be tight in the second quarter. In order to seize the upstream resources, the downstream large manufacturers have successively announced to sign a long-term single-year long list with the chip factory that does not lock the price (history for the first time). 2) LED lighting order visibility has exceeded the longest 3 months in history, and the current order has reached the level of covering August to October.
The entire industry chain in the Mainland has global competitiveness, benefiting from the comprehensive advantages of technology, cost and support, and will carry the heavy responsibility of LED global manufacturing. According to the survey, after the application end became an international manufacturing center, domestic chips have occupied more than half of the domestic application, and the follow-up is also expected to obtain the largest share of overseas OEMs. LED manufacturing is expected to breed similar semiconductor foundry-oligopoly companies in the Mainland. Related chip, packaging, and terminal market leading enterprises are worthy of attention: Sanan Optoelectronics, Liard, Maoshuo Power, Foshan Lighting, Qinshang Optoelectronics, Sunlight Lighting, etc.