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In the first half of 2010, the heavy truck market rose rapidly. As of the end of June, there were nearly 600,000 heavy-duty trucks sold in China, which has approached the total sales volume for the entire year. The heavy-duty truck market after the blowout gave surprises, but also brought worries. With the increase of various uncertainties, where does the market go in the second half?
Since the second half of last year, the heavy-duty truck market has been wiped out and the demand for heat waves has stricken. In 2010, the heavy-duty truck market continued to show rapid growth. Specifically, January is usually the traditional low season for heavy truck sales. However, in the first quarter of this year, the market started very early and the sales were extremely hot. The total sales volume of the top ten heavy truck companies reached 267,500 units, an increase of 162.8% year-on-year. Beyond the first half of 2009.
In the second quarter, heavy truck production and sales continued to remain high. In April, the sales volume of mainstream heavy truck companies was 115,800 vehicles, an increase of 132% year-on-year. The number was 107,000 in May, an increase of 121.35% over the same period last year. In June, the heat of the heavy-duty truck market gradually decreased, but in the first half of this year, the sales of heavy trucks approached 600,000.
At the same time, the sales volume of major heavy truck companies rose almost completely across the board, and production and sales hit another record high. In the first half of 2010, the rankings of heavy truck sales by mainstream heavy truck companies were: FAW, CNHTC, Dongfeng, Shaanxi Auto, Futian Auman, Beiben Heavy Duty Truck, Shang Yihong, Hualing, and JAC. Among them, FAW, China National Heavy Duty Truck, Dongfeng Heavy truck sales in the first half of more than 100,000. Shaanxi Automobile and Foton also sold about 60,000 heavy trucks in the first half of the year.
The sales of heavy trucks in the first half of the year actually made the companies look for a while, but most people in the industry are not happy about the market in the second half of the year.
"In the first half of this year, the production and sales transcripts submitted by various companies appear to be bright and beautiful, but in fact they are water-repellent," said a heavy truck dealer.
At the beginning of the year, companies were generally optimistic about the market's expectations this year, while increasing their annual target plans, they also accelerated the pace of rational or irrational investment and expansion. Heavy truck dealers all over the country have increased the number of units in order to meet and satisfy the ambitious sales plans of various manufacturers. As a result, on the one hand, car companies are grabbing matching resources and blindly driving their production to speed up production. On the other side, dealers in some regions are reporting high sales of vehicles and are chasing vehicle sources. As a result, the inventory of slow-moving vehicles has increased sharply and the pressure has been increasing. In addition, since raw materials such as steel have risen sharply this year, the production costs of manufacturers have increased, and companies are only able to reduce promotion subsidies when their profit margins are squeezed.
From the second half of the year to this year, as heavy truck sales continued to rise, except for some mainstream heavy truck companies that have their own complete kit system, most non-mainstream car companies relying on the supply of social resources have exposed engines, transmissions, axles, etc. Insufficient supply of major components. Due to limited production, manufacturers have to cut off some orders. This disrupts the normal production plan of the company, and has also led to a situation in which sales of heavy trucks have been falsified this year. In addition, there have been some dangerous signs in the heavy-duty truck market this year. In the first half of the year, there were nearly 600,000 heavy-duty trucks sold in China. However, the actual total demand of the heavy-duty truck market should be less than 800,000 vehicles. The contradiction of oversupply is highlighted.
In the eyes of many people in the industry, last year's financial crisis and China's measures to stimulate economic growth disrupted the normal pace of development of the heavy truck market. Blowouts and irritability are somewhat irrational. From the second half of last year to May, almost every month sales have exceeded historical highs, market demand has been fully released, and the declining trend of sales in June is already evident. In this situation, the momentum of hot sales in the second half will slow down. According to the current market trend analysis, this year's sales volume should not be a problem with last year's level, but it is not easy to achieve the higher sales targets set by various manufacturers at the beginning of the year.
Experts believe that in the second half of the heavy truck market will be "Ebb Tide." First of all, the heavy-duty truck market, which has been proliferating for nearly a year, will cause excess vehicles and increase the risk of transport operators. Second, after the new “Traffic Law†came out, the operating costs have increased dramatically. The annual increase in the operating cost of a car may reach 50,000 yuan, which means that the owner’s revenue is cut in half. Secondly, with the upgrading of vehicles, the cost of one-time car purchases is also rising, making it more difficult to make money. Under the influence of these three factors, if freight rates do not increase any more, the outage in the second half of the year may be even more serious, which will cause a big blow to the market.
There are also industry insiders that heavy-duty companies do not need to panic. Although the heavy-duty card sales momentum will slow down in the second half of the year, it is basically a normal rational callback. After the market squeezes many bubbles and moisture, it will return to a normal state and the competitive landscape. Some changes will also occur. It is expected that in the second half of this year and the first half of next year, the market for logistic cargo models will tend to develop steadily, while the project models will show a slightly faster development momentum, as major national investment projects are still underway, plus natural As a result of the reconstruction project caused by the disaster and the increase in the amount of coal for power plants and civilian heating during the end of this year and the entire first quarter of next year, it is expected that engineering vehicles such as dump trucks will continue to increase in development.